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Prediction for CME (2022-01-15T16:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-01-15T16:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18853/-1
CME Note: The potential source is activity centered around N15W15, which includes an eruption with rising loops around 2022-01-15T12:00Z and eruption just south of the rising loops characterized by dimming around 2022-01-15T13:00Z. One of these eruptions is also potentially associated with the 2022-01-15T14:00Z CME, which overlaps with this CME in the coronagraphs.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-01-18T23:04Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-01-19T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

Excerpt from SIDC Ursigram

:Issued: 2022 Jan 17 1231 UTC

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 20117
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 17 Jan 2022, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 17 Jan 2022 until 19 Jan 2022) 
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) 
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) 
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet 
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Jan 2022  10CM FLUX: 116 / AP: 018 
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Jan 2022  10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 011 
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Jan 2022  10CM FLUX: 114 / AP: 007

...

There were two faint and slow CMEs on 15 January, and one on 16 January, related to eruptions around NOAA AR 2929. The eruptions were mostly directed to the north, but since the active region was close to central meridian, an Earth directed component cannot be discarded (there is only sparse STEREO data available), with an estimated arrival time around 19-20 January.

...

###

Lead Time: 34.55 hour(s)
Difference: -12.93 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) on 2022-01-17T12:31Z

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